A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
