Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
